Connect to Peru

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Posts Tagged ‘inflation

Why is Foreign Investment Peru’s Top Priority in 2009?

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One of “Connect to Peru”‘s regular readers, Juan Carlos Seminario, was kind to share with me his insights on the optimism and risks that Peru could face in 2009. A native Peruvian executive who has worked for Fortune 500 Companies like P&G, Johnson, and Loreal, and principal professor for the Diplomacy Academy of Peru, among other credits, I thought would be interesting to share what he has to say via his blog “Latinopinion“.

In summary, Seminario outlines inflation, devaluation and the drop of net international reserves are among the top risks Peru could face in 2009. But the way it can best face all of these risks is via foreign investments. Well, sounds pretty in line with what I have been writing about in my recent posts, including the Minister of Economy’s tour to key cities in the U.S. and Europe, and the two upcoming FTAs with China and South Korea in 2009, for example.

Written by Catherine Castro

January 5, 2009 at 11:34 pm

Great Article in The Economist: Preparing For Tougher Times; Credit Suisse Conservative 4.5 Percent GDP Growth in Peru

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economist_logoThis is the title of a great article in today’s Economist print and online issues that provides an economic overview and outlook of Latin American countries, including Peru, and puts the region’s economy in perspective as it rides the U.S. and global economic crisis. The article begins saying:

In the five years from 2004 Latin America’s economies grew at an annual average rate of over 5%, inflation remained generally low, credit expanded and exports boomed. All this meant that the proportion of people living in poverty fell from 44% in 2002 to 33% this year, according to an estimate this week by the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. Now the task facing the region’s policymakers is to limit the damage as the world economy deflates.

Highlights include:

  • GDP estimates in 2009: Brazil 4%, Mexico 0.4%. And as mentioned in my earlier post, Peru is expecting to grow at least 6% according to government estimates.
  • The two main factors contributing to Latin America’s downturn are: a) Continuing steep fall in commodity prices because of worries that China’s economy is stalling. Commodities, from Venezuelan oil to Peruvian minerals, Argentine soya and Brazilian iron ore and orange juice, make up a big chunk of the region’s exports;  and b) Banks in Latin America have turned cautious. Many foreign banks are cancelling credit lines to the region, or renewing them for shorter periods or at higher rates.

Additionally, Credit Suisse just released a report for Latin America, where Peru is slated to show the highest growth in the region, although takes a conservative 4.5% GDP growth, as Bloomberg reports.

Written by Catherine Castro

December 11, 2008 at 12:15 pm